What's a Draft Pick Worth These Days Anyway?

A recent article from TSN.ca explored the question of what correlation a player's draft position has to his number of games played in the NHL.

In essence, does being drafted higher than another player guarantee better return at the NHL level?

Looking at the 1994-2004 drafts (allowing for players drafted in 2005-2008 to still mature and reach their potential) the article broke down what percentage of players from specific draft positions went on to play (or is very likely to play) 100+ games in the NHL and gave a few specific examples of the best players from that position.

While some of the results were not surprising (96% of players taken 1-5 overall went on to play 100+ games), other results were far more interesting.

Some of the more eye-opening statistics said that although the top 5 picks were a virtual lock to play 100 games, that number dropped way down to 74% for players taken 6-10 overall.

The survey also showed that picking anywhere from 31-105 overall has almost virtually the same chance of getting you a regular NHLer. The variation in percentages did not dip below 21% and did not go above 32% for those picks from the second to the mid-fourth round.

Below the 105th pick also showed the same correlation in percentages with the 106th-211+ picks giving you a 7%-14% chance of bagging a player.

Sure these numbers are interesting, but what do they mean?

Well, if you're a team on draft day with the 8th overall pick and you have an offer to trade up to the 6th slot, maybe you think twice about doing it, since odds are that your pick will garner about the same chance of making it as the one you're trading for. But if you have the 6th overall pick and are offered a similar deal for the 4th selection, maybe that's a trade you pull off.

Similarly, it would seem that past the first round, most players picked in the middle of the draft fall into a very similar game of chance. Whether you pick 35th or 95th, this survey says your player has a 1-in-3 shot of playing 100 games in the big league.

Same goes for the bottom rounds, except the chances are much lower, about 1-in-10.

It would seem then, the process of drafting 18-year-olds is considerably more tricky than you might think. While draft eligible players seem to fall into four distinctive categories (top-5, first round, mid-round, late-round), drafting within those groups is really a crap shoot.

High-end talent will always be there, but within a physical sport like hockey, some players just don't develop their skills or their bodies until they are 19, 20, 21 or even later. How do you think players like Pavel Dastyuk and Henrik Zetterberg got to be drafted 171st and 210th overall respectively before they exploded at the NHL level?

That's part of what makes a team like Detroit so successful. In those years of '94-'04 that this survey looked at, the Red Wings never selected higher than 23rd overall. However, they were able, through shrewd scouting and drafting, to get great value out of their late picks. Datsyuk and Zetterberg are the best examples of that but they also stole Johan Franzen at 97th overall in 2004 (he was their first pick in the draft), Jiri Dudler at 58th overall in 2002, Petr Sykora at 76th in 1997 and the list goes on. Because of the confidence they had in their drafting ability, they were never gun-shy to trade high picks away mid-season for talented veteran players to help them win Stanley Cups.

What this survey proves is the draft is an inexact science at best. While it is traditionally the worst teams that get to choose highest every year, it is the mid-late round picks that can form a team's long-term nucleus of players.

Knowing which third of the players you are evaluating will make it and which two-thirds will not isn't easy, but it's essential if you intend to turn your team into a long-term contender.